pollsters

Election prediction professionals

Pollsters are people who conduct polls—surveys designed to measure public opinion on political candidates, social issues, or consumer preferences.

The term usually applies to professionals who design, administer, and analyze these surveys: Pollsters predicted a close race.

Pollsters face scrutiny when their predictions miss the mark, as in several recent elections where polling underestimated certain candidates.

methodology

sampling

Extracting subset for study

surveysSystematic information gathering
questionnairesForms collecting structured responses
respondentsThose who answer queries

demographics · weighting · cross-tabs · stratified · screening · callbacks · nonresponse · oversampling · tracking · panel

election

voters

Those who cast ballots

campaignsOrganized efforts toward goals
candidatesThose seeking selection
primariesIntraparty nomination contests

battlegrounds · turnout · electorate · horse-race · favorability · incumbents · undecideds · precincts · projections · forecasts

criticism

bias

Unfair inclination or prejudice

accuracyDegree of correctness
herdingManaging animal groups
outliersExtreme data points

manipulation · overconfidence · misses · failures · skepticism · transparency · accountability · cell-phones

opinion

sentiment

Felt attitude or view

attitudesSettled ways of feeling
beliefsAccepted truths, personal
viewpointsIndividual ways of thinking

stances · preferences · perceptions · approval · disapproval · favorability · trust · satisfaction · mood · consensus

analysis

statistics

Collected numerical information

quantitativeConcerning measurable amounts
correlationStatistical relationship measure
regressionReturn to former state

variance · chi-square · multivariate · tabulation · aggregation · modeling · forecasting · averages · outliers · segmentation

Categories

campaigningcandidate, campaign signs, canvassing, campaign manager, fundraising
surveyssurvey, surveys, questionnaire, questionnaires, census
campaign costscampaign spending, ad buys, direct mail, staff salaries, travel expenses
Research FirmsGallup, Nielsen, Pew Research, Monmouth, YouGov
examinersinspectors, examiner, reviewers, inspector, auditors
influencersinfluencer, influencers, content creator, PewDiePie, Instagram influencers

Opposites

information gathering role

pollsterspropagandists

Spreaders of biased messaging

spin doctors · opinion makers · pundits · commentators · influencers

prediction vs. action

pollstersvoters

Those who cast ballots

candidates · elected officials · electorate · decision-makers · legislators

data relationship

pollstersrespondents

Those who answer queries

interviewees · voters · participants · electorate · the public

Family

Familiarity: Top 200,000
Profile: Timeless · Concrete · Everyday, not technical · Rated G