black swan
Dark Australian cygnet's parent
A black swan is an event or discovery that defies expectations—rare, unpredictable, and consequential.
The term comes from the European assumption that all swans were white, until black swans were found in Australia.
Nassim Taleb popularized the concept for events that blindsided everyone but seem obvious in hindsight: The 2008 financial crisis was a black swan.
More literally, a black swan is simply a swan with black plumage, native to Australia.
Cannot be anticipated
- outlierDistant data point
- rarityUncommon occurrence
- unforeseenNot predicted or expected
- tail riskUnlikely extreme outcome probability
uncertainty · anomaly · shock · surprise · paradigm shift · disruption · systemic risk · hindsight
unpredictable
Cannot be anticipated
- outlierDistant data point
- rarityUncommon occurrence
- unforeseenNot predicted or expected
tail risk · uncertainty · anomaly · shock · surprise · paradigm shift · disruption · systemic risk · hindsight · improbable
cygnet
Immature swan
- plumageBird's complete feather coat
- waterfowlSwimming birds collectively
- feathersBird's lightweight covering
beak · webbed feet · graceful · majestic · lake · pond · swimming · nesting · flock · habitat
black swanbusiness as usual
Continuation of normal routine
calculated risk · foregone conclusion · certainty · the usual · known quantity
black, swan, blacken, swans, blacklist, blackberry, blackness, blackish, blackened