The Black Swan
Unpredictable extreme event
A 2007 book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb about rare, unpredictable events with massive consequences—named for the once-unthinkable discovery of black swans in Australia.
A black swan event is one that defies expectations, carries extreme impact, and gets rationalized after the fact: The 2008 financial crisis was a black swan.
The concept has become standard vocabulary in finance, risk management, and forecasting.
- unpredictableCannot be anticipated
- rareSeldom found or seen
- outlierDistant data point
- tail riskUnlikely extreme outcome probability
- riskPossibility of harm
probability · finance · crash · perfect storm · unexpected · Natalie Portman · prima ballerina · ballet · obsession · tutu · pirouette · dark · feathers · graceful · lake · transformation · chaos · catastrophe
- Pirate FilmsPirates of the Caribbean, Treasure Island, Blackbeard, Captain Kidd, Long John Silver
- Sea MoviesMaster and Commander, The Perfect Storm, Das Boot, Titanic, Captain Phillips
- swashbucklersswashbuckler, swashbucklers, swashbuckling, pirate, pirates
- pub namesThe Crown, Royal Oak, White Horse, Green Man, Golden Fleece
- Thomas MannDeath in Venice, Doctor Faustus, Royal Highness, Tristan
- Statistics Books
The Black Swannormal distribution
Bell-shaped probability curve
known unknown · calculated risk · regression to the mean · white noise · standard deviation
black, swan, blacken, blackness, blacker, blackest, blackly, swans