prediction markets
Wagering on outcomes
Prediction markets are trading platforms where participants buy and sell contracts based on the outcomes of future events—elections, economic indicators, sporting results.
Prices reflect collective estimates of probability: if shares of "Candidate X wins" trade at 65 cents, the market implies a 65% chance of that outcome.
Proponents argue these markets aggregate information more accurately than polls or expert forecasts.
The prediction markets have her as the favorite.
Staking money on outcomes
- wageringRisking money on outcomes
- gamblingBetting on uncertain results
- speculatorsThose betting on markets
- riskPossibility of harm
volatility · leverage · bullish · bearish · futures · derivatives · hedging · traders
Exchanging for value
- contractsEnforceable written agreements
- sharesUnits of company ownership
- bidsPrice offers made
- asksSeeks information verbally
liquidity · arbitrage · buy · sell · odds · pricing · order book · settlement
Quantified chance of occurrence
- likelihoodChance something will occur
- estimationApproximate value judgment
- calibrationAdjusting for measurement accuracy
- accuracyDegree of correctness
aggregation · wisdom of crowds · consensus · updating · Bayesian · signal · noise · track record
Formal choosing of officials
- politicsGovernmental power struggles
- sportsCompetitive physical activities
- economicsScience of resource allocation
- geopoliticsGeography's role in statecraft
pandemic · climate · policy · science · technology · entertainment · corporate · decision-making
betting
Staking money on outcomes
- wageringRisking money on outcomes
- gamblingBetting on uncertain results
- speculatorsThose betting on markets
risk · volatility · leverage · bullish · bearish · futures · derivatives · hedging · traders · investors
trading
Exchanging for value
asks · liquidity · arbitrage · buy · sell · odds · pricing · order book · settlement · payout
probability
Quantified chance of occurrence
- likelihoodChance something will occur
- estimationApproximate value judgment
- calibrationAdjusting for measurement accuracy
accuracy · aggregation · wisdom of crowds · consensus · updating · Bayesian · signal · noise · track record · forecasters
elections
Formal choosing of officials
- politicsGovernmental power struggles
- sportsCompetitive physical activities
- economicsScience of resource allocation
geopolitics · pandemic · climate · policy · science · technology · entertainment · corporate · decision-making · risk assessment
decentralized
Lacking single authority
- blockchainCryptographic linked transaction record
prediction marketsexpert panels
Groups of authorities consulted
central planning · centralized planning · editorial boards · focus groups · polling
prediction marketsdogma
Unchallengeable official beliefs
prophecy · divine revelation · oracles · received wisdom · appeals to authority
prediction marketsgut feeling
Instinctive sense about something
intuition · hunches · coin flipping · random chance · whim
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