Bayesian
Belief-revision probability framework
Bayesian describes an approach to probability and statistics based on updating beliefs as new evidence arrives.
Named for Thomas Bayes, an 18th-century mathematician.
In Bayesian reasoning, you start with a prior probability, then revise it when you learn something new: Bayesian analysis suggested the treatment was effective.
The term often contrasts with frequentist methods, which rely on long-run frequencies rather than evolving degrees of belief.
Rear or later
- priorExisting before another
- likelihoodChance something will occur
- evidenceFacts supporting truth
- updatingMaking something current
marginalization · hyperparameter · sampling · decision theory · hypothesis testing · credence
Trust held as true
- uncertaintyState of being unsure
- distributionAllocation across recipients
- random variableFunction quantifying probabilistic outcomes
- expectationBelief about future outcomes
chance · odds · betting · coherence · calibration
Facts supporting truth
- learningGaining knowledge gradually
- inductionFormal admission process
- scientific reasoningMethodical analysis from evidence
- philosophy of scienceStudy of scientific reasoning
Probability estimation through randomness
- StanMasculine given name
- approximationNear but inexact value
- convergenceProcess of approaching sameness
- chainLinked segments forming length
Systematic grouping by traits
- banditArmed roadside thief
- active learningEducation through direct participation
posterior
Rear or later
- priorExisting before another
- likelihoodChance something will occur
- evidenceFacts supporting truth
updating · marginalization · hyperparameter · sampling · decision theory · hypothesis testing · credence
belief
Trust held as true
- uncertaintyState of being unsure
- distributionAllocation across recipients
- random variableFunction quantifying probabilistic outcomes
expectation · chance · odds · betting · coherence · calibration
evidence
Facts supporting truth
- learningGaining knowledge gradually
- inductionFormal admission process
- scientific reasoningMethodical analysis from evidence
18th century
Years 1701-1800
- reverendWorthy of veneration
- Royal SocietyUK's national science academy
Monte Carlo
Probability estimation through randomness
- StanMasculine given name
- approximationNear but inexact value
- convergenceProcess of approaching sameness
classification
Systematic grouping by traits
- banditArmed roadside thief
- active learningEducation through direct participation
- forecastingforecast, prediction, prognosis, outlook, estimate
- inferenceinference, logical inference, entailment, syllogism, deduction
- biostatisticsANOVA, biostatistics, t-tests, confidence interval, p-value
- phylogeneticscladogram, clade, phylogeny, phylogenetics, cladistics
- financebank, CFO, banks, controller, finance
- decisionschoice, make a decision, choices, yes, no
Bayesianfrequentist
Repeated-sampling probability adherent
objectivist · empiricist · positivist · nonparametric · dogmatic