gambler's fallacy
Due-number delusion
The gambler's fallacy is the mistaken belief that past random events affect future probabilities.
A roulette wheel landing on red five times doesn't make black more likely next spin—each spin is independent.
The fallacy feels intuitive because we expect randomness to "balance out," but probability has no memory: After losing six hands in a row, he was sure his luck had to turn.
Long thin marks
- sequencesOrdered sets of elements
- runsMoves fast on foot
- trendsPrevailing directions of change
- clusteringForming concentrated groups
overdue · patterns · consecutive · series · repetition · cycles
Freedom from external control
- randomnessLack of predictable pattern
- oddsLikelihood expressed numerically
- likelihoodChance something will occur
- statisticsCollected numerical information
frequency · distribution · chance · outcome · stochastic · variance
streaks
Long thin marks
clustering · overdue · patterns · consecutive · series · repetition · cycles
independence
Freedom from external control
- randomnessLack of predictable pattern
- oddsLikelihood expressed numerically
- likelihoodChance something will occur
statistics · frequency · distribution · chance · outcome · stochastic · variance
roulette
Spinning wheel wager
dice · slot-machine · blackjack · poker · craps · baccarat · wager · stakes · bookmaker · house-edge
misconception
Erroneous belief or understanding
- misunderstandingFailure to grasp meaning
- behavioral economicsloss aversion, nudge, anchoring, cognitive bias, heuristics
- cognitive biasesconfirmation bias, anchoring bias, negativity bias, framing effect, optimism bias
- fallaciesstraw man, red herring, circular reasoning, ad hominem, slippery slope
- gambling psychologyloss aversion, illusion of control, chasing losses, near miss, cognitive bias
- gambling superstitionsblowing on dice, hot streak, cold streak, beginner's luck, lucky dice
- logical fallaciesstraw man, ad hominem, red herring, false dilemma, false analogy
gamble, gambler, gamblers, gambling, gambled, fall, fallacy, fallacies, fallacious