optimism bias
Expecting better outcomes
Optimism bias is the tendency to believe that bad outcomes are less likely to happen to oneself than to others.
People with optimism bias underestimate their chances of getting divorced, losing a job, or developing cancer, while overestimating their odds of success.
The bias persists even when people know the statistical probabilities: Despite the failure rate for new restaurants, every owner thinks theirs will succeed.
- wishful thinkingBelief shaped by desire
- rose-colored glassesMetaphor for naive optimism
- glass half fullPositive outlook metaphor
- bright sidePositive aspect of something
- overconfidenceUnjustified certainty in oneself
naive · hopeful · blind spot · illusion · best case scenario · denial · sunny · unrealistic · pie in the sky · too good to be true · bubble · self-deception · false hope · Pollyanna · everything happens for a reason · expectations · disappointment · hubris
- behavioral economicsloss aversion, nudge, anchoring, heuristics, mental accounting
- biaseshalo effect, horn effect
- cognitive biasesframing effect, halo effect, loss aversion, horn effect, Dunning-Kruger effect
- logical fallaciesfallacy, straw man, ad hominem, red herring, false dilemma
- thinking errorsad hominem, straw man, slippery slope, sunk cost fallacy, false dilemma
- Thinking Trapshalo effect, horn effect, anchoring, sunk cost fallacy, loss aversion
optimism biasnegativity bias
Tendency to weight bad heavier
worst-case thinking · catastrophizing · learned helplessness · fatalism · anticipatory anxiety
optimism, optimist, optimistic, optimistically, optimal, optimize, optimum, optimality, optimized