leading indicator
Early warning metric
A leading indicator is a measurable factor that changes before a larger trend becomes apparent, used to predict future conditions.
In economics, leading indicators like new housing permits or stock prices signal where the economy is heading before GDP data confirms it.
The concept extends beyond economics: Customer complaints are a leading indicator of churn.
Contrasts with lagging indicators, which confirm trends already underway.
Alert about danger
- alertWarning or watchfulness
- forewarningNotice of future trouble
- heraldOfficial news announcer
- precursorSomething that comes first
harbinger · portent · omen · presage · early warning · red flag · canary · bellwether
Standard for comparison
- gaugeStandard of measurement
- metricStandard of measurement
- barometerInstrument gauging atmospheric pressure
- yardstickThirty-six-inch ruler
index · parameter · quantification · calibration · assessment · evaluation · diagnostics · criteria
Sustained price level increase
- employmentPaid occupation status
- consumer confidencePublic's economic outlook measure
- manufacturingIndustrial product creation
- housing startsNew residential construction metric
retail sales · yield curve · stock market · interest rates · business investment · money supply · productivity · exchange rates
Product of mass, velocity
- directionWay something faces
- shiftMovement or work period
- upturnImprovement in conditions
- downturnEconomic decline period
trajectory · forecast · projection · outlook · cycle · pattern · inflection point · turning point
warning
Alert about danger
- alertWarning or watchfulness
- forewarningNotice of future trouble
- heraldOfficial news announcer
precursor · harbinger · portent · omen · presage · early warning · red flag · canary · bellwether · advance notice
benchmark
Standard for comparison
- gaugeStandard of measurement
- metricStandard of measurement
- barometerInstrument gauging atmospheric pressure
yardstick · index · parameter · quantification · calibration · assessment · evaluation · diagnostics · criteria · baseline
inflation
Sustained price level increase
- employmentPaid occupation status
- consumer confidencePublic's economic outlook measure
- manufacturingIndustrial product creation
housing starts · retail sales · yield curve · stock market · interest rates · business investment · money supply · productivity · exchange rates · oil prices
momentum
Product of mass, velocity
downturn · trajectory · forecast · projection · outlook · cycle · pattern · inflection point · turning point · reversal
- Prediction Toolsweather radar, barometer, thermometer, satellite, weather vane
- predictorsforecaster, prognosticator, prophet, seer, soothsayer
- warning signsred flag, yield sign, warning sign, caution sign, siren
- Market IndicesS&P 500, Dow Jones, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, Nikkei