law of averages
Things even out
The law of averages is the popular belief that outcomes will balance out over time—that a run of bad luck must eventually yield good luck, or vice versa.
Statisticians consider this a fallacy when applied to independent events: past coin flips don't influence future ones.
But in everyday speech, people invoke it to express faith that things will even out: The law of averages says we're due for a win.
Chance something will occur
- chanceLikelihood of occurrence
- statisticsCollected numerical information
- outcomesFinal results achieved
- frequencyRate of recurrence
distribution · normal distribution · regression to the mean · sample size · expected value · variance · probability theory · bell curve
Prediction of future conditions
- expectationBelief about future outcomes
- estimationApproximate value judgment
- projectionSomething that extends outward
- anticipationState of awaiting something
outcome · eventual · over time · trend · normalization · reversion · settling · evening out
Assuming randomness self-corrects
- misconceptionErroneous belief or understanding
- mythTraditional explanatory tale
- misunderstandingFailure to grasp meaning
- superstitionBaseless belief in omens
flawed reasoning · hot hand · luck · streaks · overdue · balancing out · cosmic justice · illogical
likelihood
Chance something will occur
- chanceLikelihood of occurrence
- statisticsCollected numerical information
- outcomesFinal results achieved
frequency · distribution · normal distribution · regression to the mean · sample size · expected value · variance · probability theory · bell curve · long run
forecast
Prediction of future conditions
- expectationBelief about future outcomes
- estimationApproximate value judgment
- projectionSomething that extends outward
anticipation · outcome · eventual · over time · trend · normalization · reversion · settling · evening out · predictability
gambler's fallacy
Assuming randomness self-corrects
- misconceptionErroneous belief or understanding
- mythTraditional explanatory tale
- misunderstandingFailure to grasp meaning
superstition · flawed reasoning · hot hand · luck · streaks · overdue · balancing out · cosmic justice · illogical · unscientific
- statistical fallaciesgambler's fallacy, survivorship bias, sampling bias, selection bias, publication bias
- statisticsmean, median, mode, variance, standard deviation
law of averagesgambler's fallacy
Assuming randomness self-corrects
regression to the mean · law of large numbers · streakiness · black swan event · outlier
law of averageschaos
Complete disorder and confusion
randomness · unpredictability · volatility · irregularity · erratic behavior
laws, lawful, lawfully, unlawful, unlawfully, lawless, lawlessness, lawyer, lawyers