overpredicting
Guessing too high
Overpredicting is forecasting or estimating something higher than what actually occurs.
Weather models might overpredict rainfall, or a study might overpredict risk factors for disease.
The term appears frequently in statistics, machine learning, and behavioral research: The algorithm was overpredicting demand by 15%.
Compare underpredicting.
Error from excessive reckoning
- overshootingExceeding an intended limit
- overestimationJudging something too high
- inflationSustained price level increase
- exaggerationOverstating beyond reality
overstatement · overconfidence · overreach · overvaluation · hyperbole · bullishness · overoptimism
Expecting favorable outcomes despite odds
- overconfidenceUnjustified certainty in oneself
- wishful thinkingBelief shaped by desire
- anchoringFastening securely to position
- confirmation biasPreferring belief-supporting information
groupthink · herd mentality · hubris · presumption · sanguine · rose-colored · pollyannaish · irrational exuberance
Estimating future conditions
- projectionSomething that extends outward
- extrapolationExtending data beyond bounds
- speculationUnproven theorizing or risky investment
- modelingSimulating or demonstrating form
regression · algorithm · calibration · validation · backtesting · overfitting · false positive · training data
Error in estimation
- misjudgmentFaulty evaluation of something
- inaccuracyLack of precision
- imprecisionLack of exactness
- misreckoningIncorrect computation
deviation · discrepancy · variance · unreliability · incorrectness · flaw · distortion · overshoot
overcalculation
Error from excessive reckoning
- overshootingExceeding an intended limit
- overestimationJudging something too high
- inflationSustained price level increase
exaggeration · overstatement · overconfidence · overreach · overvaluation · hyperbole · bullishness · overoptimism
optimism bias
Expecting favorable outcomes despite odds
- overconfidenceUnjustified certainty in oneself
- wishful thinkingBelief shaped by desire
- anchoringFastening securely to position
confirmation bias · groupthink · herd mentality · hubris · presumption · sanguine · rose-colored · pollyannaish · irrational exuberance · motivated reasoning
forecasting
Estimating future conditions
- projectionSomething that extends outward
- extrapolationExtending data beyond bounds
- speculationUnproven theorizing or risky investment
modeling · regression · algorithm · calibration · validation · backtesting · overfitting · false positive · training data · confidence interval
miscalculation
Error in estimation
- misjudgmentFaulty evaluation of something
- inaccuracyLack of precision
- imprecisionLack of exactness
misreckoning · deviation · discrepancy · variance · unreliability · incorrectness · flaw · distortion · overshoot · bias
overpredictingunderpredicting
Forecasting below actuals
underestimating · lowballing · underestimation · underrating · undervaluing
predict, prediction, predictable, predicted, predicting, predictive, predictor, predictions, unpredictably