expected return

Projected investment gain

Expected return is the anticipated profit or loss on an investment, calculated as a weighted average of possible outcomes.

It's a fundamental concept in finance for comparing investments: The expected return on this portfolio is 8% annually.

The calculation accounts for probability—a 50% chance of gaining $100 and a 50% chance of losing $50 yields an expected return of $25.

Actual returns rarely match expected returns exactly; the term describes a statistical mean, not a guarantee.

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risk · reward · investment · portfolio · dividend · gain · net present value · upside · probability · benchmark · alpha · beta · volatility · performance · growth · long term · time horizon · speculation

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Opposites
certainty of outcome

expected returnguaranteed income

Payment promised without condition

valence of financial outcome

expected returndownside risk

Potential for negative returns

temporal realization

expected returnreal return

Gain after inflation deducted

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