win probability
Odds of winning
Win probability is a statistical measure expressing the likelihood that a team or player will win a game, usually as a percentage that updates in real time based on current conditions: With two minutes left and down by seven, their win probability dropped to 12%.
Common in sports analytics and betting, win probability models factor in score, time remaining, possession, and historical data.
The metric has spread from baseball to football, basketball, and esports, often displayed during broadcasts.
- oddsLikelihood expressed numerically
- chanceLikelihood of occurrence
- likelihoodChance something will occur
- expected valueProbability-weighted outcome average
- bettingStaking money on outcomes
point spread · over under · favorite · underdog · percentage · statistics · prediction · forecast · expected · outcome · Vegas · spread · moneyline · calculator · simulation · model · upset · longshot
- sports bettingodds, bets, bookmaker, bet, sportsbook
- sports analyticssabermetrics, Moneyball, performance metrics, analytics, WAR
- game analysisreplay, highlight reel, statistics, play-by-play, commentary
- sports coverageplay-by-play, color commentary, highlight reel, game recap, pre-game
- sports graphicsscoreboards, action poses, leaderboards, swimming strokes, standings
- sports statsstats, most points, yards, most goals, box scores
win probabilityforegone conclusion
Result assumed beforehand
sure thing · certainty · final outcome · lock · impossible odds
probability, winning, winner, winners, winnable, probable, probably, improbable, improbably