risk scores

Risk scores are numerical ratings that estimate the likelihood of a negative outcome—default on a loan, recurrence of disease, criminal reoffending.

They compress complex data into a single figure that institutions use to make decisions: Her risk score qualified her for a lower interest rate.

Credit scores are the most familiar example, but risk scores now appear in healthcare, insurance, criminal justice, and fraud detection.

The algorithms behind them are often proprietary and controversial, particularly when they encode bias or resist explanation.