gamblers fallacy
Expecting overdue wins
The gambler's fallacy is the mistaken belief that past random events affect future probabilities—that a roulette wheel landing on red five times makes black "due." In reality, each spin is independent; the wheel has no memory.
The fallacy emerges from pattern-seeking intuition misapplied to genuinely random processes: After three coin flips came up heads, he bet everything on tails.
- casinoFacility for wagering
- rouletteSpinning wheel wager
- streakUnbroken series
- luckChance affecting outcomes
- long shotUnlikely to succeed
dice · probability · hot hand · lucky streak · superstition · odds · betting · randomness · coin flip · due · pattern · wheel · blackjack · losing streak · chance · misconception · slots · winning
- fallaciesstraw man, red herring, circular reasoning, ad hominem, slippery slope
- irrationalityirrationality, unreason, illogic, madness, insanity
- Misconceptionsmisconception, myth, false belief, mistaken belief, misbelief
- perception errorsmisperception, illusion, optical illusion, visual distortion, blind spot
gamblers fallacyrational thinking
Logic-based mental process
logical reasoning · clear thinking · critical thinking · analytical reasoning · evidence-based reasoning
gambler, gamble, gambles, gambled, gambling, fallacy, fallacies, fallacious, fallaciously