forecasting models
Future estimation tools
Forecasting models are systems—mathematical, statistical, or computational—designed to predict future outcomes based on historical data and identified patterns.
They range from simple trend extrapolations to complex machine learning algorithms: The forecasting model predicted a 12% increase in demand.
Common in economics, meteorology, and business planning, these models vary in sophistication but share the goal of reducing uncertainty about what lies ahead.
- crystal ballFortune-teller's viewing sphere
- moving averagesSuccessive averaged data points
- trend linesDirectional patterns in data
- decision treesBranching predictive model structures
- neural networksLayered computational learning systems
black box · storm tracking · ARIMA · ensemble · number crunching · spectral analysis · assumptions · outputs · uncertainty · best guess · prediction · data · weather · statistical · scenarios · time series · accuracy · simulations
forecasting modelshistorical analysis
Systematic study of past events
forensic analysis · post-mortem analysis · postmortem analysis · backcasting · autopsies
forecasting modelsgut feeling
Instinctive sense about something
intuition · wild guesses · gut instinct · hunches · speculation